Here is Michigan basketball's path to another Final Four run (2024)

John Beilein is a master of positive thinking; he has been that way forever.

Michigan basketball's coach goes out of his way to make sure his players are shown film clips of themselves doing the exact right thing at the exact right time. As much as possible.

He's repetitive. He makes sure his teams talk about being champions twice every day. Once before practice. Once after. He consistently makes his clubs repeat their mission of playing hard, smart and tough,to a point where it's more of a reflex than a habit.

Pound it enough and, eventually, it'll sink.

On Sunday evening in a hallway outside his United Center locker room — his disappointed team a few feet away after a third loss to Michigan State in three weeks —Beilein was at it again.

"We've got good kids on this team," he said in that familiar, persistent tone. "Every last one of them will look at (that loss) and say 'why did I do that?'

"And we'll all grow."

Beilein's reputation as not only a developer of talent but a maximizer of skill is well-documented. He has won 15 NCAA tournament games since 2015. He has won the Big Ten tournament twice and made the final two other times.

Michigan is 28-6 and set to enter the tournament this week as a No. 2 seed in the West Region. This team is capable of making the program's third run to the Final Four in the past seven years.

But it's complicated, because as good as Beilein is at squeezing nearly everything he can from mostteams hecoaches, heknows there are no guarantees when it comes to the overall development timeline.

After a third loss to MSU on Sunday, Beilein acknowledged the Spartansare more efficient than Michigan at the moment.

Which is why all three games turned out the way they did down the stretch, with Michigan State finishing strong and Michigan coming up short. It's not just about those final minutes, though. It's about the full 40. And the ability to be more efficient at every turn.

Can Michigan squeeze those extra percentage points before hitting the floor in Des Moines, Iowa later this week for the start of what it hopes to be a long tournament run?

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"We have before," Beilein said. "(Sometimes) it could take a week, it could be a year, a month. Could be three to four years before you see that efficiency (from some players),"

"We always work on it."

Beilein will no doubt spend the better portion of this week reminding his players that it's 28-6 and considered by most to be one of the top teams in America, despite the trio of thorns planted by MSU.

Analytics say this is a second-weekend team right now. KenPom gives Michigan the sixth-best odds of any team in the country to make the Sweet 16.FiveThirtyEightputs Michigan's odds of reaching the Sweet 16 for a third straight year at 69 percent.

If you get to the second weekend in this tournament, anything's possible.

Michigan plays a Montana team familiar with the Wolverines from an opening-round loss a year ago. The 2017-18 version of Montana was better, analytically, than this one, which is why it's a 15 seed instead of a 14 like last year.

[Michigan vs. Montana in NCAA tournament: Scouting report, pick]

As for potential Round 2 matchups, No. 10 seed Florida has an offense that ranks No. 60 nationally in efficiency. Michigan's defense ranks No. 2.

Nevada, the No. 7 seed, has talent. But the Wolfpack just lost to a San Diego State team that didn't even make the NIT. Nevada is a sleeper pick on a few lists, and it's easy to see why. But Nevada has one Quadrant 1 win, and has only played in two Q1 games. Michigan has nine Q1 wins.

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Texas Tech is the No. 3 seed and owner of the country's top-ranked defense. But Michigan's offense is better. Gonzaga is the No. 1 seed in the region, but is a mere 4-3 in Q1 games this season.

The path, for Michigan, is there. It's not easy. All of these teams are talented, and we haven't even mentioned an improved Florida State team, a group far better than the one Michigan toppled in the Elite Eight last season.

But the region is there for the taking.Beilein insists his team isn't going to break over recent rivalry disappointments. It's easy to believe him, because he has proven his ability to get over that before. Yet his team is going to have toget itself into a situation where it's playing with more efficiency offensively.

Beilein will reiterate that to his players this week, as he has for the previous three months. His track record is pretty good.

But at this point, it's up to the players on the floor to take that positive thinking and turn it into tournament wins.

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Contact Nick Baumgardner atnbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@nickbaumgardner. Read more on theMichigan Wolverinesand sign up for ourWolverines newsletter.